On February 21, 2016 UFC Fight Night heads to the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for Cerrone vs. Means. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card to see if we can’t find any value with our bets on the event.
Donald Cerrone -145 v. Tim Means +125
The money has poured in on Means for this one. He’s younger, taller, and has a bigger reach so I can’t say I’m all that surprised. These two have similar records, Cerrone is 28-7 while Means has gone 24-7-1. My gut says to take the younger fighter with the more impressive physical skills so I’m going with the underdog.
Derek Brunson -350 v. Roan Carneiro +300
I have a tough time taking a favorite this large but in this case it’s easy to see why Brunson is the big favorite. He fights at a heavier weight class, has four inches on him, two inches of reach, and five years in age. If you want as close to a sure thing as you are going to find in this event then put some coin on Brunson. He’s 14-3 compared to Carneiro’s 20-9 mark, soon to be 20-10.
Cody Garbrandt +120 v. John Lineker -140
Garbrandt comes in at 7-0 but hasn’t really fought anyone in this class yet. Lineker is 26-7 so he has a big edge in experience. He’s a little bit smaller but I don’t think it’s going to matter in this one. I’m going to with experience and laying the small number.
Dennis Bermudez -340 v. Tatsuya Kawajiri +270
I think the underdog might be worth a look here. Kawajiri has a longer reach by three inches. I know he’s 8 years older and no longer in his prime, but at 35-8-2 he’s racked up an impressive career. Bermudez is 14-5 and is an up and comer, but this is too heavy of a price.
Barndon Thatch -380 v. Sitar Bahadurzada +260
Here’s another match where the dog might bark. Bahadurzada is a little bit older and a little bit smaller, but does have experience on his side. He’s gone 21-6 in his career. Thatch is no slouch at 11-3 and he has fought some impressive foes. I just think the line on this should be a little shorter so I’ll take a stab with Sitar.