UFC Fight Night: Corrine v Means

On February 21, 2016 UFC Fight Night heads to the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for Cerrone vs. Means.  Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card to see if we can’t find any value with our bets on the event.

Donald Cerrone -145 v. Tim Means +125

The money has poured in on Means for this one.  He’s younger, taller, and has a bigger reach so I can’t say I’m all that surprised.  These two have similar records, Cerrone is 28-7 while Means has gone 24-7-1.  My gut says to take the younger fighter with the more impressive physical skills so I’m going with the underdog.

Derek Brunson -350 v. Roan Carneiro +300

I have a tough time taking a favorite this large but in this case it’s easy to see why Brunson is the big favorite.  He fights at a heavier weight class, has four inches on him, two inches of reach, and five years in age.  If you want as close to a sure thing as you are going to find in this event then put some coin on Brunson.  He’s 14-3 compared to Carneiro’s 20-9 mark, soon to be 20-10.

Cody Garbrandt +120 v. John Lineker -140

Garbrandt comes in at 7-0 but hasn’t really fought anyone in this class yet.  Lineker is 26-7 so he has a big edge in experience.  He’s a little bit smaller but I don’t think it’s going to matter in this one.  I’m going to with experience and laying the small number.

Dennis Bermudez -340 v. Tatsuya Kawajiri +270

I think the underdog might be worth a look here.  Kawajiri has a longer reach by three inches.  I know he’s 8 years older and no longer in his prime, but at 35-8-2 he’s racked up an impressive career.  Bermudez is 14-5 and is an up and comer, but this is too heavy of a price.

Barndon Thatch -380 v. Sitar Bahadurzada +260

Here’s another match where the dog might bark.  Bahadurzada is a little bit older and a little bit smaller, but does have experience on his side.  He’s gone 21-6 in his career.  Thatch is no slouch at 11-3 and he has fought some impressive foes.  I just think the line on this should be a little shorter so I’ll take a stab with Sitar.