UFC Fight Night: Silva v Bisping

One of the my recommended sports books, 5Dimes, has released odds on the upcoming UFC Fight Night: Silva v Bisping card.

Mike Wilkinson +130 v. Marwan Amirkhani -160

Amirkhani has the height advantage at 5’11” versus the smaller Wilkinson at 5’8″.  I don’t really know much more about him other than that so this is a fight I won’t be touching.  I do know Wilkinson comes in at 9-1 so he is by no means a slouch.  He’s more of a striker with his boxing background but can wrestle pretty well if they get tied up.

David Grant -245 v. Marion Vera +175

There has been a lot of action on Vera dropping this line down and for good reason.  He’s 9 years younger at 21 and has definitely been more active recently.  He’s coming off a decision loss to Marco Beltran but I think he’s a live dog in this fight.

Scott Askham -300 v. Chris Dempsey +220

The action is coming in here for the favorite.  He’s got four inches on the underdog and is an impressive physical specimen.  He’s coming off a loss to Krzysztof Jotko to bring his record back to 13-2 but he’ll look to get back on track here.

Brad Scott -105 v. Krzysztof Jotko -135

Everyone is pouring money in on Jotko and at 16-1 it’s easy to see why.  He is coming off beating Askham and Tor Troeng.  His only loss was by submission to Magnus Cedenblad.  Scott on the other hand doesn’ have as an impressive of a resume to be commanding this kind of line value.

Norman Parke +220 v. Rustam Khabilov -300

I’m going with the underdog here.  These fighters are very similar in physical attributes and their records aren’t far off either.  Parke is 21-4-1 while Khabilov is 17-3.  This line should be closer to a pick em so there is a lot of value with the heavy underdog.

Daniel Omielanczuk -110 v. Jarjis Danho -130

Another fight that is close but the wrong fighter is favored.  Omielanczuk is younger and has had more experience.  I know Danho is undefeated at 6-0 but he really hasn’t fought anyone worth noting.

David Teymur -105 v. Martin Svensson -135

With only four fights under his belt not much is known about Teymur, but he has won three straight against some decent fighters.  Svensson definitely has the experience but he’s lost two of his last four to go to 14-5.  I think this one is pretty even so will pass on betting it.

UFC Fight Night: Corrine v Means

On February 21, 2016 UFC Fight Night heads to the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for Cerrone vs. Means.  Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card to see if we can’t find any value with our bets on the event.

Donald Cerrone -145 v. Tim Means +125

The money has poured in on Means for this one.  He’s younger, taller, and has a bigger reach so I can’t say I’m all that surprised.  These two have similar records, Cerrone is 28-7 while Means has gone 24-7-1.  My gut says to take the younger fighter with the more impressive physical skills so I’m going with the underdog.

Derek Brunson -350 v. Roan Carneiro +300

I have a tough time taking a favorite this large but in this case it’s easy to see why Brunson is the big favorite.  He fights at a heavier weight class, has four inches on him, two inches of reach, and five years in age.  If you want as close to a sure thing as you are going to find in this event then put some coin on Brunson.  He’s 14-3 compared to Carneiro’s 20-9 mark, soon to be 20-10.

Cody Garbrandt +120 v. John Lineker -140

Garbrandt comes in at 7-0 but hasn’t really fought anyone in this class yet.  Lineker is 26-7 so he has a big edge in experience.  He’s a little bit smaller but I don’t think it’s going to matter in this one.  I’m going to with experience and laying the small number.

Dennis Bermudez -340 v. Tatsuya Kawajiri +270

I think the underdog might be worth a look here.  Kawajiri has a longer reach by three inches.  I know he’s 8 years older and no longer in his prime, but at 35-8-2 he’s racked up an impressive career.  Bermudez is 14-5 and is an up and comer, but this is too heavy of a price.

Barndon Thatch -380 v. Sitar Bahadurzada +260

Here’s another match where the dog might bark.  Bahadurzada is a little bit older and a little bit smaller, but does have experience on his side.  He’s gone 21-6 in his career.  Thatch is no slouch at 11-3 and he has fought some impressive foes.  I just think the line on this should be a little shorter so I’ll take a stab with Sitar.